3 Digital Marketing Predictions We Got Wrong (Mostly)

No one can predict the future, especially in digital marketing. Despite claims after the fact, most people didn’t expect Myspace to collapse, Google+ to fail miserably, or Twitter to become X and almost immediately lose 23% of its user base. What works now may not work in the future, and early movers are more likely to jump the gun than get a head start.

And that includes us. You live and you learn.

To celebrate our owner/CEO/BBQ guy, Fernando Meza’s, tenth anniversary of Oneupweb proprietorship, we dug through the blog archives to find a few social media, paid media, and organic content marketing predictions that didn’t quite pan out as we expected.

Three Big Marketing Prediction Misses

1. Voice Search Would Dominate the World

We spent the mid-2010s voicing our conviction that voice search would change the internet. Two of several blogs on the topic survive, including one that noted a generational shift would push voice-centric youths into prime consumer positions by the end of the decade.

It didn’t quite shake out. While there’s considerable evidence that voice search plays an important role in consumer behaviors, it hasn’t been as pervasive or lucrative as many predicted. Voice search accounts for roughly 20% of mobile searches and considerably less on desktops. Google Assistant, Siri, and Alexa are useful for researching products and finding local restaurants but not for converting. The disconnect between discovery and conversion has caused real problems for marketers and companies, even ecommerce giants. Amazon sold its Alexa devices at a loss for years, anticipating increased sales from voice search, a strategy that cost the company billions.

We might still be right about this one eventually, though. Google and Apple have invested billions in building artificial intelligence into their mobile devices to improve the conversational search (and product ordering) experience.

2. Google Plus Would Compete with Facebook

For a short, beautiful moment, Google+ went toe-to-toe with Facebook as a go-to social media platform. A lot of folks were confident that Google, with more than 4 million search users per minute and more than 500 Gmail accounts in 2014, would naturally emerge as a player in the space.

It did not.

After its debut in 2011, Google+ surpassed 100 monthly active users in less than a year. It made a few key mistakes that stunted its growth, including failing to control spam and not integrating business pages successfully.

In just three short years, the platform was already downsizing by moving its development to other departments within Google. That wasn’t enough to discourage Oneupweb from predicting Google+ wasn’t done yet. It received a complete overhaul in 2015, but users didn’t take the bait. While Alphabet ultimately had a Google+ team until 2019, the product was buried by 2016 when the app was removed from the Google Play store.

(Un)Related: Meet Teddy & Bianca, Oneupweb’s Famous Office Dogs

3. Tumblr Would Reshape American Politics

Oneupweb was quick to praise then incumbent Presidential candidate Barack Obama for using Tumblr to jumpstart his 2012 reelection campaign. Obama’s use of Tumblr created a “personal connection between the campaign and its supporters.” We suggested – maybe even believed – that the platform’s popularity would continue to be an asset for political marketing.

Obama won the election, but Tumblr fizzled. The blog platform failed to monetize its traffic (with ads) adequately or user base (with subscriptions). By the middle of the decade, it fell from obscurity to acquisition to dissolution. Facebook would pick up the political baton, much to the chagrin of, well, everyone.

Here’s to Another Decade of Getting It Mostly Right

While we may have gotten a few marketing predictions wrong over the years, we’ve gotten a lot of things right. Under Fernando’s watchful eye, Oneupweb has grown into one of the most respected franchise marketing agencies on the block, as well as an experienced partner in a range of industries. Here’s to the next ten years; we hope you’ll join us for the journey. Start the conversation or call (231) 922-9977 today to learn about our capabilities and check our vibe.